A leftist leader, leading presidential voting – a report says
A survey has been conducted on the upcoming presidential election in Sri Lanka, and based on 599 interviews on the presidential election voting intention in September, the survey has revealed that Sri Lanka leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake leading at 46 percent, ahead of opposition leader Sajith Premadasa at 29 percent and President Ranil Wickremesinghe at 17 percent.
The survey done by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), whose Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) showed that the support for Dissanayake among likely voters has increased by seven percent since August and, accordingly the leader of the Marxist-Leninist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) ahead of the race.
The September 2023 Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) estimates are based on 599 interviews conducted in September 2023, and 13,431 interviews conducted overall from 1 October 2021–11 October 2023, with a margin of error assessed as 1–3% for Dissanayake, Premadasa, Wickremesinghe, and one ‘other’ potential candidate, the IHP said in a statement issued on Tuesday October 24.
All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections, the organization said.
“SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults, ages 18 and over, reached by random digit dialing of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection,” IHP said explaining the survey methodology.
IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of MRP, with multiple imputations to account for uncertainties in its modeling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.
“However, the sponsors play no role in the study design, analysis, or interpretation of findings, adding that interested parties can contact IHP for more detailed data and results,” IHP said.
According to the statement, to do such currently important surveys, the SLOTS has been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others.
Meanwhile, President Ranil Wickremesinghe on the 21st of October announced the conduct of the presidential election next year (2024), followed by the parliamentary elections and the provincial council elections in 2025.
“In accordance with the Constitution, the presidential election would be held next year, followed by parliamentary elections and the provincial elections in early 2025,” the President said, addressing a special convention of the United National Party at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium.
Addressing the session in his capacity as the UNP leader, Ranil Wickremasinghe called on his party members to prepare for these elections.
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